Boss Clinton and the Racial Gambit

How many times is everyone going to underestimate Bill Clinton?

Bubba pulled a fast one in South Carolina, and no one really noticed.

Bill Clinton became president because he is a superb practitioner of Southern Populism. And if there is anything Southern politicians know-- race matters.

It would be nice if race, gender, religion and sexual orientation did not matter in American elections, but the fact is they do. And the biggest factor is the relationship between blacks and whites, which has existed since the dawn of the Republic, and is specifically incorporated in the Constitution.

Barack Obama's transcendent message is that black and white, like conservative and liberal, no longer matter in the new politics. But, even though most all of us are sick of it, and wish it didn't-- race still matters, and Bill Clinton proved it in South Carolina.

Obama's victory was secured by the large number of African-Americans who deserted Hillary after her husband did a bit of race bait dangling. But Hillary received three-quarters of the votes of white Democrats.

Bill Clinton has not exactly thrown the black vote under the bus. In fact those who distrust Obama, and are familiar with the actual Clinton record, will stick with his wife.

Barack Obama is the type of black that white folks like. He is the one black kid in the suburban high school, and everyone wants to be his pal.

African-Americans, like Colin Powell and Tiger Woods, are wildly popular with white folks. These guys are willing to give whites the benefit of the doubt, and assume they are not racist until they show otherwise. In return white people embrace them.

But, white folks never really forget that their black pals are still black. And in the final analysis, for many, it makes a difference--though they will hardly ever admit it, even to themselves. But a large segment of black people know this all too well, and distrust these brothers (and sisters— Condi Rice and Oprah, of course) who are willing to enter into this compromise with whites.

Blacks, like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, tackle the issue from the opposite end. They assume there is racism, until proven otherwise. And there is certainly a very valid reason for their assumption, and the fact that a lot of whites are irritated by the attitude proves it.

Hillary is going to continue to benefit from those black Democrats who are distrustful of Obama. And if she gets the nomination, she need not worry much in the general election. Neither Bill nor Hillary has said anything that will fatally linger—and besides, they have very solid credentials. No way are African-Americans going to desert the Clintons and hop aboard the Republican train to no where.

But what the Ward Boss did is intentionally make race an acceptable issue for whites to consider. And the sad thing is, this will, as it did in South Carolina, get his wife white votes. Now that the card has been played, it is out there, and need not be mentioned again.

Unlike South Carolina, in most of the primary states, if Hillary Clinton gets the support of white voters she will win—especially if the distrustful African-American Democrats stick with her.

Bill Clinton sacrificed South Carolina, for victory on Super Tuesday.

We'll see if it worked.



P.S.-UPDATE-in support of this idea, the most recent CNN/LA Times poll showed that Hillary's support increased from 42% to 47% in California, with Obama trailing at 32%. The poll was conducted largely after and during Bubba's remarks in South Carolina, but only one of the polling days was after the Obama victory.

Nonetheless, it shows a Clinton ascendancy, which has been ignored by the press (since the Obama story makes for more tantalizing copy), and all those who (usually wishfully) think every single time is the time that Bill Clinton has finally screwed things up royally.

~Becky